US and Israeli Strikes on Iran Trigger Regional Instability; Air Algérie Cancels Flights
Takeaway
The spike in oil prices due to the conflict presents a short-term opportunity for Sonatrach to increase revenues. However, energy companies should closely monitor potential disruptions to Algerian gas exports to Europe via the Medgaz pipeline. Increased volatility in the region may also delay planned investments in Algeria's oil and gas sector, including Sonatrach's $5.4 billion deal with Saudi Arabia's Medad Energy.
On Saturday, February 28, 2026, a series of US and Israeli airstrikes targeted multiple Iranian cities, including Tehran, Kom, and Isfahan. In response, Iran launched missile attacks against targets in "occupied Palestine" and claimed responsibility for explosions in neighboring countries, including Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced a large-scale missile and drone attack against Israel. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. military had initiated a large and ongoing military operation against Iran, aiming to dismantle its missile program and prevent nuclear weapon development.
The escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran introduces significant uncertainty into the region, potentially impacting Algeria's economic trajectory. In recent months, Algeria has maintained a neutral stance amid rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran. While Algeria has historically maintained friendly relations with Iran, it has avoided public support for Iran during the current crisis, reflecting a desire to avoid entanglement in a direct confrontation with the U.S.. In December 2025, Algeria emphasized diplomacy and dialogue at the UN Security Council to avoid nuclear escalation.
The conflict's impact on the energy sector is of particular concern. Prior to the conflict, tensions between the U.S. and Iran had already caused oil prices to rise. OPEC+ may consider further increases in oil production after Saudi Arabia and the UAE increased their exports in anticipation of supply disruptions resulting from the attacks on Iran. Algeria, a member of OPEC since 1969, is scheduled to meet with other OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the UAE, to discuss potential adjustments to oil production. In June 2025, Algeria planned to increase its crude oil production by 9,000 barrels per day starting in July. Algeria's recoverable oil reserves are estimated at 13 billion barrels, but current production rates could deplete these reserves within three decades.
The ongoing military actions are already affecting regional air travel. Air Algérie announced the cancellation of flights to and from Amman, Dubai, and Doha on Saturday, February 28, 2026, to ensure the safety of its passengers and crew. Iran has also closed its airspace completely. The disruption to air travel and potential impacts on shipping routes could affect trade flows and supply chains in the region. The Bazan Group shut down its oil refinery in Haifa Bay after a direct missile hit damaged its power plant.
Looking ahead, the situation remains highly volatile. The meeting of OPEC+ members will be closely watched for any decisions regarding oil production levels. The potential for further escalation remains a significant risk, with the possibility of broader regional conflict involving multiple global powers. The Algerian government will likely continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust its policies as needed to protect its economic interests and maintain stability. A rare astronomical phenomenon, a gathering of six planets alongside the moon, will be visible in the Algerian sky tonight, February 28, 2026, at 7 PM.