Oil Prices Surge 9% as US-Israeli Operation Against Iran Disrupts Supply
Image: Algerie Eco
Takeaway
The 9% spike in oil prices presents immediate trading opportunities in Brent crude futures. Energy companies with diversified supply chains, particularly those less reliant on the Strait of Hormuz, may see increased investor interest. Traders should monitor the EU's response and any potential emergency measures, as these will influence short-term price volatility.
Oil prices jumped 9% on Monday, March 2, 2026, following the third day of a joint U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran. The military action, which U.S. President Donald Trump stated could last four to five weeks, has raised concerns about disruptions to oil exports from the Middle East. The operation began on Friday, February 28, 2026, in response to alleged imminent threats from the Iranian regime.
This recent surge in oil prices echoes the economic impact seen during Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, where rising energy costs rapidly affected consumers and had knock-on effects across various sectors. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies, sees approximately 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through it. Disruptions to shipping in this area are significantly impacting global markets. In June 2025, U.S. forces launched a "Midnight Hammer" strike on three Iranian nuclear sites.
The European Commission stated on Monday that it does not anticipate an immediate impact on the European Union's oil supply security due to the conflict. However, benchmark Dutch wholesale gas prices rose by more than 25%. Most tanker owners, oil majors, and trading houses have suspended energy shipments via the Strait of Hormuz. The EU's oil coordination group is scheduled to meet within 48 hours to assess the situation.
Net energy importers in Asia and Europe are expected to be hit hardest by the higher prices. Goldman Sachs economists suggest that a complete one-month blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices up by $15 a barrel. Some analysts believe Brent crude could trade between $80 and $90 per barrel immediately, with a risk of climbing to $100 or even $140 per barrel if supply disruptions are significant and prolonged. The US, as a net energy exporter, may be less affected but still faces inflationary pressures.
Market participants will closely monitor the duration and intensity of the conflict, as well as any potential disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The EU's gas supply coordination group is set to meet on Wednesday to evaluate the impact on European gas prices, which have already surged by over 50%. A prolonged standoff could erode inventories, constrain logistics, and tighten global oil and gas balances, leading to more significant price effects.