Brent Crude Surges Above $100 Amid Middle East Conflict, Highest Since 2022
Image: Algerie Eco
Takeaway
The surge in Brent crude prices presents both opportunities and risks for energy investors. Companies with significant upstream assets in politically stable regions, like Algeria, stand to benefit from increased revenues. However, downstream businesses such as airlines and petrochemical firms will face higher input costs, potentially squeezing margins. Traders should monitor the Brent-WTI spread, as well as geopolitical developments impacting supply routes, to anticipate further price volatility.
Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, closed above $100 per barrel on Thursday, marking the first time it has surpassed this level since August 2022. The price of Brent jumped 9.22% to $100.46 per barrel. On Friday, Brent crude futures for May delivery rose $1.59, or 1.58%, to $102.05 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for April also increased by $1.50, or 1.2%, reaching $96.88 per barrel. However, on March 13, 2026, Brent rose to $103.86 a barrel, a 3.38% increase from the previous day.
The surge in oil prices is largely attributed to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict involving Iran, which began around February 27, 2026. Since the start of the conflict, the price of Brent crude has soared by over 42%, climbing from $72.48 on February 27 to $103.14 on Friday. The Middle East conflict has disrupted the supply of hydrocarbons from the Gulf, contributing to the price increase. On March 10, 2026, oil prices experienced a notable drop following statements by U.S. President Donald Trump hinting at a potential resolution to the war with Iran and the easing of certain sanctions on the petroleum sector.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the oil markets are facing the “largest supply disruption in history” due to the ongoing conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. The IEA ordered the release of 400 million barrels of emergency crude reserves from its 32 member countries in an attempt to stabilize the market. The US agreed to release 172 million barrels of crude oil from its strategic petroleum reserve. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime route, responsible for approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas supply. The blockade has removed roughly 20% of global oil trade and forced Gulf producers to cut output by 10 million barrels per day as storage capacity reaches critical limits.
The rise in oil prices is expected to have broad implications for the global economy, potentially fueling inflation and slowing economic growth. Market analysts suggest that crude oil movements are currently dictating the direction of global markets. Rising energy prices could intensify fears of a global energy crisis and push inflation higher. Central banks, which were previously expected to cut interest rates, may now pause or even raise borrowing costs to curb inflation. Goldman Sachs Research estimates that a full one-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz could add anywhere from $10 to $15 per barrel to oil prices.
Investors and analysts are closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East for any signs of de-escalation, as well as the effectiveness of efforts to cool energy prices, including the temporary relaxation of sanctions on Russian oil shipments. Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expect Brent crude oil to trade at $107.05 USD/BBL by the end of this quarter and estimate it to trade at $118.23 in 12 months. Seven central banks are scheduled to hold policy meetings next week, which could provide further insights into the global economic outlook and potential responses to rising inflation.